Welcome back, Deep Leaguers! As we approach the 20th game of the season, the Dodgers are leading the NL, and the Guardians and Twins are tied for the top spot in the AL. While some teams' performances have been as expected, others have fallen short of our initial predictions. Let's take a closer look at the risers and fallers in Week 4 of the Deep League.
Fallers
Alex Freeland
Alex Freeland, a second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has struggled to find his footing this season. Despite his impressive performance in AAA last season, where he hit 16 home runs and stole 18 bases, Freeland has only managed a .220/.289/.341 slash line with a single home run in 11 starts. His underlying rates, however, paint a more promising picture, with a 92.7 MPH exit velocity, a 44% hard hit rate, a 21% chase rate, and an 8% walk rate. But with Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman returning from the IL, Freeland's playing time is uncertain, and he may not be a reliable option for Deep Leagues.
Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer, a first baseman and outfielder for the Cincinnati Reds, has been a consistent performer in the past three seasons, with at least 20 home runs and 75 RBI per season. However, this season, Steer has struggled with a .176/.218/.353 slash line. His underlying rates are mixed, with an 87.4 MPH exit velocity, a 17% barrel rate, a 5.5% walk rate, and a 29% strikeout rate. The Reds have already made a move by optioning Noelvi Marte and calling up Rece Hinds, who has been crushing AAA with a .354/.475/.771 slash line. Steer's playing time is uncertain, and he may not be a reliable option for Deep Leagues.
Marcell Ozuna
Marcell Ozuna, a utility player for the Pittsburgh Pirates, has struggled to find his footing this season. Despite his impressive performance in the past two seasons, where he hit 40 and 39 home runs, Ozuna has only three hits in 11 games for the Pirates. His underlying rates are not encouraging, with a 3% barrel rate, a 22.6% popup rate, and a 25% strikeout rate. While his bat speed is still impressive, his age and the competition in the lineup may limit his performance. The Pirates may not give up on him just yet, but he may not be a reliable option for Deep Leagues.
Risers
Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith, a first baseman and designated hitter for the Atlanta Braves, has been a consistent performer in the past two seasons. After a small resurgence last year, Smith has excelled in a strong side platoon role for the Braves this season. With a .353/.378/.647 slash line, three home runs, and 11 RBI in 10 games, Smith is showing more aggression at the plate than ever before. His underlying rates are impressive, with an average exit velocity over 90 MPH, a 17.3% whiff rate, and a 10% line drive rate. While he sits against lefties and has mostly batted seventh, Smith has the potential to be a 20-home run, .275 batting average, 70+ RBI corner infield option.
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh, an outfielder for the Philadelphia Phillies, has been a consistent performer in the past two seasons. Despite his strong ratios, Marsh has only provided 11 home runs, seven steals, and 102 runs + RBI in 133 games. This season, Marsh has a .304/.333/.482 slash line, with two home runs and two steals in 15 games. His underlying numbers are encouraging, with a whiff rate below 22%, a K rate of 23%, a hard hit rate of over 46%, and an exit velocity of over 90 MPH. Marsh's playing time in the middle third of the Phillies' lineup could provide him with more opportunities to drive in runs and improve his run and RBI totals.
Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez, a first baseman and shortstop for the Arizona Diamondbacks, made a big splash with two home runs in his debut. However, he has struggled to maintain his performance, going 1 for 12 in his next 12 games. Fernandez's underlying rates are not encouraging, with an average exit velocity of just over 85 MPH, a 6.7% barrel rate, a 33% hard hit rate, and a 0% walk rate. While his sprint speed is elite, he has only stolen one base in one attempt this year. Fernandez's minor league track record is not impressive, and he may benefit from more time at AAA. However, he has held his own so far and could be a speculative add for Deep Leagues.
